Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-04 75145.293336 79384.113060 83626.219072 88187.122951 92949.022739 97771.028866 103019.937336
2026-01-11 68242.993580 74700.695210 81347.014043 88689.356594 96563.781817 104745.871930 113880.902180
2026-01-18 63066.979898 71018.329030 79385.585471 88827.750051 99167.033515 110124.871275 122596.631901
2026-01-25 59118.732656 68181.426041 77897.412938 89057.201206 101488.696971 114878.673971 130358.356569
2026-02-01 55695.526933 65605.387521 76405.364575 89003.562435 103247.874822 118805.757674 137033.720858
2026-02-08 53290.468150 63967.760833 75775.113831 89737.867163 105732.655957 123416.102715 144376.040003
2026-02-15 50751.925100 62008.199882 74626.736447 89739.374953 107261.612124 126851.330513 150318.147121
2026-02-22 49232.555857 61122.057041 74615.298627 90960.453753 110116.766617 131746.619692 157901.018544
2026-03-01 47646.378066 60061.475100 74316.682383 91771.539021 112436.497384 135987.244410 164713.969594
2026-03-08 45719.118981 58499.731351 73343.061288 91709.140739 113667.002811 138915.966692 169973.324114
2026-03-15 44134.596157 57276.718766 72705.204076 91983.821117 115244.882593 142216.084558 175650.898340
2026-03-22 43243.291861 56851.622593 72985.366136 93326.183290 118073.408799 146984.259442 183075.070211
2026-03-29 42191.038273 56197.498981 72968.400856 94302.637997 120474.337965 151278.629214 190000.577616
2026-04-05 41026.164504 55357.326844 72685.569489 94923.753956 122426.658476 155034.825414 196301.789742
2026-04-12 39715.009953 54281.970970 72066.949491 95090.719411 123793.542892 158068.771361 201732.599987
2026-04-19 38523.249005 53313.833851 71541.969527 95338.008338 125231.858556 161174.512517 207251.494426
2026-04-26 37261.341855 52210.236701 70805.470930 95282.376651 126264.272378 163765.931510 212138.095426
2026-05-03 36447.140151 51658.962615 70744.497498 96058.903733 128323.364172 167618.008579 218588.152766
2026-05-10 35335.627110 50678.805776 70099.718004 96060.553795 129383.264843 170220.913405 223494.920710
2026-05-17 34838.083801 50494.182185 70467.260511 97351.308026 132074.860389 174863.972227 230963.660532
2026-05-24 34184.273877 50076.285557 70511.253521 98208.571576 134206.635758 178810.684004 237582.150032
2026-05-31 33181.389613 49154.876707 69866.050690 98142.624345 135134.064075 181232.073235 242287.567841
2026-06-07 32368.702070 48467.671566 69507.809573 98432.927107 136507.622389 184213.137407 247707.434352